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美国政客们又开始拿人民币升值说事儿了。可惜，他们的算盘打得并不讨巧，至少相当多的美国人对此并不买账。人民币贸然升值究竟会给谁带来伤害？人们需要一个理性的答案。

　　近期甚嚣尘上的人民币升值炒作伴随着16日美众议院公布的一份两党议案达到顶峰。该议案敦促白宫施压中国汇率政策，甚至提出要通过对所有中国进口商品征收27.5%关税这一露骨的贸易保护工具相威胁。几乎与此同时，美国学者保罗·克鲁格曼亦在《纽约时报》上撰文指责“人民币被低估已成全球经济复苏最大拖累”，并建议对中国进口商品加征额外高达25%的关税。

　　此文一经刊出，短短两天时间即已收到网友发来的330条评论。让人颇感意外的是，有相当多的美国网友旗帜鲜明地批驳这一指责。这些评论简明直接，但却真实地反映了美国普通民众对于人民币升值问题的看法。他们认为，在一些美国人抱怨工作岗位流向发展中国家的同时，更多的美国人因为进口商品成本的下降而提升了自身生活质量。迫使人民币大幅升值或者采取诸如加征关税这样的贸易保护措施不仅会降低美国人的购买力，损害美国普通民众的福祉，也会为美国在国际社会上塑造这样一种形象：即美国政府将当前经济不景气的局面归咎于所有人，惟独没有它自己。

　　针对美国部分议员及克鲁格曼的中国操纵汇率论，有美国民众表示，“操纵汇率？我认为中国有着低劳动力成本的天然优势。如果将这视为贸易顺差的原因，那么应该说是资本主义的机制在发生作用，也就是生产会朝向最高效的生产者转移。我们需要考虑用其他的方法来解决问题，而不是朝低成本的生产商们哭天抢地。”

对于施压中国人民币大幅升值，美国民众有着非常现实的担心：“当你通过本币相对贬值而提升出口竞争力的同时，毫无疑问这会招致报复性的贸易保护主义措施，而这不是解决问题的办法”，“威胁要向中国商品加征关税，这会加大美国的通胀压力，甚至可能导致美国最不愿意看到的二次衰退”，“不要忘记，眼下是中国正在帮助全球经济摆脱严重衰退。我们现在最不应该做的事情就是破坏中国的稳定”。

　　看来，智慧的确是存在于普通民众中间的。事实上，人们不难发现,escort shanghai，多年来美方在挑起人民币升值话题的时机选择上一向微妙，最主要的目的就是转移公众视线，试图以“攘外”而“安内”。眼下，美国总统奥巴马的支持率直线下降，国会中期选举又步步逼近,escorts shanghai，美国政府迫切需要为国内近10%的失业率找到借口。但许多经济学界人士已反复提出，中美之间贸易失衡的根本原因并不是汇率问题，逼迫人民币升值无助于解决问题。

　　联合国贸易和发展会议3月16日发布的一项政策简报就明确表示，把解决全球经济失衡问题的责任完全归于一个国家及其货币政策是没有道理的。汇率自由浮动无助于校正全球经济的失衡，这个问题的根源其实是一种系统性缺陷，因此需要通过全面的和多边的行动来加以解决。简报认为，将人民币暴露于货币市场会给全球带来更大风险，有关要求中国人民币汇率升值的呼吁“忽视了中国内部和外部稳定对于地区和全球的重要性”。

　　中国社科院世经政所国际金融室副主任张明3月18日在接受本报记者采访时表示，人民币贸然升值对于美国乃至世界经济的确有可能构成巨大风险，这主要体现在四个方面。

　　首先，正如美国民众所担心的，中国经济受到威胁，全球经济都要遭殃。张明认为，人民币大幅升值对于中国宏观经济来说相当于一种紧缩政策，因为它挫伤的将不只是出口企业利润，同时对投资和消费会产生不利影响。一方面，与出口相关的大量投资在短期内将英雄无用武之地；另一方面，因为出口不景气而导致的总需求下降将直接拖累企业和个人消费的增长。作为当前全球经济复苏最主要的贡献力量，如果中国经济增长因上述“三驾马车”承压而放缓脚步，全球经济无疑将因此蒙上一层阴影，这对于复苏仍然乏力的欧美发达国家来说绝不是好消息。从更微观的层面看，中国出口不景气也会让许多跨国公司的洋老板们大为不爽，而他们中有许多都是姓“欧”或者姓“美”。

　　其次，如果人民币大幅升值，那么在发达国家占有大量份额的“中国制造”商品价格势必上涨，从而给进口国带来输入性通胀压力。在这一点上，美国民众同样心知肚明。眼下美联储之所以敢于连续一年作出在“较长时间内”维持超低利率的承诺，很重要的就是有稳定偏低的通胀率撑腰。一旦因人民币升值导致美国出现输入性通胀，则眼下复苏尚不稳固的美国经济将极有可能面临滞胀威胁，甚至出现二次衰退。

　　第三，如果人民币升值预期因为美国大力施压而快速上升，一个可以预见的后果就是大批“热钱”涌入中国，这在给中国带来资产价格上扬和通胀上升压力的同时，对国际资本流动的秩序也将构成威胁。“在国际资本总规模相对稳定的情况下，大批“热钱”涌入中国，这就意味着大规模资本从其他市场撤出，从而威胁后者资产价格的稳定。”张明说。

　　最后，对于摩拳擦掌施压人民币升值的美国政客来说，如果人民币真如其所愿大幅升值，他们很快就会发现其实是“搬起石头砸了自己的脚”。因为即使人民币大幅升值，美国民众很快就会发现，美国政府所说的“流失到中国的大量工作岗位”并没有流回美国，而是流向了其他尚未遭到严重不公正对待的低成本劳动力国家。

近日，国家人力资源和社会保障部、教育部、卫生部联合下发了《关于进一步规范入学和就业体检项目维护乙肝表面抗原携带者入学和就业权利的通知》，在社会上引起广泛关注，我省一些求职者纷纷打电话进行咨询。昨日，针对通知要求，省人社厅法规处相关负责人结合我省的实际情况进行了深入的政策解读。

　　入学、就业体检不得查乙肝

　　据了解，《通知》进一步明确取消入学、就业体检中的乙肝病毒检测项目，各级各类教育机构、用人单位在公民入学、就业体检中，不得要求开展乙肝项目检测，不得要求提供乙肝项目检测报告，也不得询问是否为乙肝表面抗原携带者；各级医疗卫生机构不得在入学、就业体检时提供乙肝项目检测服务。

　　违规查乙肝要承担赔偿责任

　　对此，该负责人表示，按照《通知》要求，目前我省已经要求各地设立了举报投诉电话，对用人单位违规要求进行乙肝项目检测，劳动者可到当地人力资源和社会保障部门进行举报和投诉，或拨打12333劳动保障专线进行相关政策咨询。

　　“对于用人单位违规进行乙肝项目检测，将承担赔偿责任”，相关负责人表示，用人单位对劳动者进行乙肝项目检测的，由人力资源和社会保障部门及时纠正、制止,shanghai escort，并按照《就业与就业管理规定》，给予一定数额的罚款，对当事人造成损害的，还要承担赔偿责任。

　　该负责人还表示,shanghai escorts，目前我省正在严查用人单位违规进行乙肝项目检测，加强对用人单位的监督管理，督促严格执行国家相关规定，对违反规定单位依法进行严格查处。
 

Neil Cornelssen says he misses the free cookies in the evening at one hotel and the daily newspaper outside his door at others.
He’s also noticing that bath towels in a growing number of hotel rooms are shabby and need to be replaced.

Cornelssen, a sales manager in Marlton, N.J., is one of many frequent travelers who say they see the tangible effect that the recession has had on the nation’s hotel industry. Among them: run-down rooms with fewer bathroom amenities, closed club lounges, fewer concierge staffers, slow room service, reduced hours at restaurants and bars, and infrequent airport shuttles.

"The unfortunate reality of today’s marketplace," says Hotels magazine Editor-in-Chief Jeff Weinstein, is hotels are "more focused on saving cash than delivering the best service."

Hit by a declining demand for rooms, low room rates and plummeting revenue, hotel companies have laid off hundreds of thousands of employees and are struggling to maintain quality. A record number of hotels are defaulting on mortgage payments. Hundreds have been taken over in foreclosures, and some have closed or are about to.

"Because of the recession and the credit bust," says Ed Watkins, editor of the trade publication Lodging Hospitality, "it’s the worst downturn in decades — perhaps ever."

As a result, says Robert Habeeb, president of Chicago’s First Hospitality Group, which operates 40 hotels in eight states, "The industry is in survival mode."

The toll on the industry is told by startling numbers:

•In January, U.S. hotels had a record-low 45.1% occupancy rate — the lowest January rate since industry statistician Smith Travel Research began tracking data in 1987. Last year’s rate — 54.8% — was the lowest ever recorded by the company.

•About 400,000 U.S. hotel employees were laid off during the past two years, says Joe McInerney, president of the American Hotel & Lodging Association. About 1.6 million hotel and motel employees remain, according to the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

•New hotel construction has declined significantly, reducing hotel companies’ opportunities to grow their brands and increase revenue, says Mark Woodworth, president of Atlanta-based PKF Hospitality Research. Construction began on 78 new hotels in last year’s fourth quarter, compared with 158 during the same months in 2007, according to Smith Travel Research.

•The total property value of U.S. hotels has fallen by up to 50% from its peak in 2007, according to Fitch Ratings, which provides ratings and analytical commentary to the world’s credit markets. Such a drop has limited the ability of owners to sell hotels and improve their credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says.

•A record 15.7% of securitized hotel mortgage loans were delinquent at the end of last month, according to Trepp, which tracks commercial real estate loans. Securitized loans represent about a quarter of hotel loans.

In California alone, 330 of the state’s 10,000 hotels have defaulted on mortgage payments since the start of 2009, says Alan Reay, president of Atlas Hospitality Group, a research and marketing company in Irvine, Calif.

Reay says 76 hotels in California and about 500 nationally have been taken over by lenders in foreclosure since the beginning of 2008. Most have continued to stay open for business.

"Banks don’t want to take back the keys to distressed hotels in most situations," says Paul Heney of the trade publication Hotel & Motel Management. "They seem to be doing everything they can to negotiate with the ownership groups — to ride out the rest of this economic stress."

Closing a hotel is a huge risk, Heney says. Some believe "that the day a hotel closes its doors, it is worth 50% of what it was worth the day before," he says.

Some high-profile closures

Upscale hotels have been hit hardest, and some have closed.

The W Hotel in San Diego was turned over to lenders in September after its owner, Sunstone Hotel Investors, defaulted on a $65 million loan payment.

The Wyndham Drake in Oak Brook, Ill., closed a month later.

The Drake had "about $3 to $5 million in deferred maintenance when it was shut down," says Ted Mandigo, a hospitality consultant in Elmhurst, Ill. "It was struggling for occupancy and at a negative cash flow."

On May 2, The Ritz-Carlton, Lake Las Vegas, in Henderson, Nev., will close because of a decline in business, says Vivian Deuschl, the chain’s vice president.

Meetings business decreased at many luxury hotels, Deuschl says, after Congress scolded insurance giant American International Group for spending about $400,000 at a luxury California resort following an $85 billion federal bailout in 2008.

Budget and non-luxury hotels haven’t escaped the downturn.

Sunstone, which owns various Marriott, Hyatt, Hilton, Fairmont and Starwood hotels, has turned over 13 other hotels to lenders. They include the Renaissance Westchester in West Harrison, N.Y., the Marriott Ontario Airport in Ontario, Calif., the Hilton Long Island/Huntington in Melville, N.Y., and the Holiday Inn Downtown in San Diego.

Citing decreased business-travel spending, Extended Stay last June filed for bankruptcy court protection with a debt of $7.6 billion. Its 684 hotels, which cater primarily to guests staying at least 18 nights, remain open. The company has five hotel brands: Extended Stay America, Extended Stay Deluxe, Homestead Studio Suites Hotels, StudioPLUS Deluxe Studios and Crossland Economy Studios.

Despite the industry’s deep financial woes, William Marks, managing director for San Francisco-based JMP Securities, says he doesn’t believe the industry has been permanently altered.

"We are just experiencing the cyclical nature of the industry," he says. "Unfortunately, this is a more powerful downturn than normal."

More cuts, fewer upgrades

To cut costs, hotel employees now perform a variety of tasks, says Roberta Nedry of Hospitality Excellence, which provides service training for hotel employees. Some brands have replaced experienced concierges with lower-paid, inexperienced ones.

Hotels also have become more vigilant about turning off lights and lowering thermostats, and are closing wings or floors when occupancy is down, First Hospitality’s Habeeb says.

Renovation and upgrades are being delayed, says Heney of Hotel & Motel Management.

"Many hotels just can’t go through with upgrades, say to flat-screen TVs in guestrooms, as soon as they’d hoped," he says. "A room may not see new furniture but instead get new bedding, lighting and the like."

Hotels’ food-and-beverage operations have also had to adjust.

Noticing a drop in corporate travel and spending, two San Antonio hotels — the Omni La Mansión del Rio and the Watermark Hotel & Spa — increased advertising to local residents.

"We were able to draw on new business that at one time may have been overlooked by our properties," says John Brand, the hotels’ executive chef.

Managers at the Barona Resort & Casino in Lakeside, Calif., began noticing two years ago that guests were spending less on food and beverages, and dining more at the resort’s less expensive restaurants.

Guests began sharing appetizers, skipping appetizers and dessert and ordering a glass instead of a bottle of wine, says Duncan Firth, a chef and restaurant manager at the resort.

In response, the resort instituted discount menus and half-price entrees for some gamblers. This month, one of the resort’s restaurants is offering a $9.99 prime rib dinner and bringing back a 10-year-old menu "with prices to match," Firth says.

The opposite may be occurring at some revenue-starved hotels.

Kansas-based business traveler Robert Bender, chief architect for a technology company, says he’s seen a big increase in food and beverage prices at hotels.

For guests: Low rates

In January, the average daily room rate in U.S. hotels was $93.93, a drop from $106.54 in January 2008 and the lowest for the month since 2005, according to Smith Travel Research. Similarly, the average room rate for all of 2009 — $97.68 — was the lowest since 2005.

Though the travel industry expects the number of travelers to increase this year, hotel experts don’t foresee rates rising quickly.

"Despite early signs of a recovery toward the end of last year, few properties expect to raise prices," says Scott Booker, vice president of Hotels.com. "This could be another year of significant values for both business and leisure travelers worldwide."

Hotels "took a beating" during last year’s fourth quarter from corporations demanding rock-bottom room and meeting rates for employees, says Jeff Higley of HotelNewsNow.com, an online trade publication.

McInerney, the president of the hotel trade group,escort shanghai, acknowledges the difficulties negotiating in a buyer’s market. But he says the country is slowly coming out of recession, and he sees "a little light at the end of the tunnel."

Executives of big hotel companies also see positive signs.

Though Marriott International had a 38% revenue decline and a $346 million loss for 2009, CEO J.W. Marriott last month said the fourth quarter’s $106 million profit "exceeded our expectations" and returned the company to profitability.

Marriott said leisure travelers responded to "aggressive marketing campaigns," and business travel "showed signs of improvement." The company opened 38,000 rooms, trotted out two new brands, Edition and the Autograph Collection, and reduced debt by nearly $800 million in 2009, he said.

Matt Avril, hotel group president of Starwood Hotels & Resorts, says his company cut its debt by more than $1 billion and opened 83 hotels last year. Starwood has nine brands, including Sheraton, Westin and W Hotels.

Avril says the company, which lost $107 million in the fourth quarter, has seen a rebound in leisure and business travel, and has emerged from the recession &quot,shanghai escort;a battle-tested and more mature organization."

Watkins of Lodging Hospitality says that unlike the economic downturn in the late 1980s, when the industry operated at a loss, it’s expected to turn a profit this year and in 2011.

That’s possible, Watkins says, because the industry today is more disciplined, "dominated by large companies and savvy entrepreneurs" who are "more sophisticated in marketing and operational techniques."

"Times are tough," he says, "but many hotel owners are measuring that by the fact they can only order a new Mercedes every other year instead of every year."

San Diego resident James Sikes, 61, was the subject of a highly publicized incident on a Southern California freeway March 8. Sikes said his Prius’s gas pedal stuck, causing his car to speed to 94 mph. Sikes said he tried to free his gas pedal with his hand but did not say whether he put the car in neutral. He was able to stop the vehicle after calling 911 and receiving instructions from a state trooper who pulled his cruiser alongside the speeding hybrid.

Toyota and federal government investigators swooped in to examine the car. An initial report of the testing emerged Sunday from a congressional committee that said investigators could not duplicate the incident.

Many Toyota drivers who have reported runaway acceleration have said it was a one-time occurrence, and failures do not always repeat. Nevertheless, on Monday, Toyota laid out its evidence against Sikes’s claim.

"There are significant inconsistencies between the account of March 8 and the findings of this investigation," Toyota spokesman Mike Michels said. After weeks of public apologies by top-level company officials, Toyota has begun to fight back with engineering evidence to say that its cars are safe.

Michels and other Toyota officials said that Sikes’s Prius was subjected to extensive testing at a Toyota dealership in El Cajon, Calif., including the inspection of individual parts and vehicle systems as well as diagnostic testing of the car’s on-board computers and data recorder. The front brakes on the Prius were found to be ground down, said Toyota product quality vice president Bob Waltz, so the car was outfitted with new brakes and test-driven several times. It did not experience runaway acceleration.

Michels said that if Sikes had heavily applied the brakes simultaneously with the accelerator,escort shanghai, as he said he did, "it would have easily stopped the vehicle."

Testing showed that the car’s brakes had been applied about 250 times during the incident, causing the brakes to overheat.

Michels said that Sikes was told by the 911 operator to put his Prius into neutral and turn off the ignition.

Sikes’s attorney, John Gomez, declined to comment after Monday’s briefing, the Associated Press reported.

On Sunday, he told the AP that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration "has never been able to replicate one of these incidents. Mr. Sikes drove the vehicle for three years without incident. The idea that they couldn’t make it happen again really doesn’t show anything.&quot,shanghai escorts;

&nbsp,escorts shanghai-Top House Dem Says ‘Votes Are The;

 A Democratic leader in the House voiced confidence Monday that his side has the votes necessary to pass the health care reform bill, perhaps as soon as this week.

"I think the votes are there. I always believed that," said Rep. John Larson of Connecticut, the fourth-ranking Democrat in the House and the Democratic Caucus chairman.

Larson’s confidence is a departure from what other senior Democratic leaders have been saying the past few days. The have couched their vote predictions.

"When we bring the bill to the floor, we’ll have the votes," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said.

And the top vote counter in the House, Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, was clear Sunday on NBC’s "Meet the Press" that he was still short.

"We don’t have (the votes) as of this morning. But we’ve been working this thing all weekend. We’ll be working it going into the week," Clyburn said. The South Carolina Democrat had indicated Friday that "the votes will be there when we vote."

On Monday night, Larson was even more emphatic that the House Democratic leadership had rounded up the votes of wavering lawmakers.

"We have the votes and that’s all that matters," Larson said.

Obama voiced confidence Monday, too, but suggested he and other Democratic leaders still had work to do to get the legislation passed.

"I believe we’re going to get the votes, we’re going to make this happen," the president said in an interview with ABC News. He has traveled to three states and lobbied numerous lawmakers in recent days.

And Sen. Jim DeMint, a Republican who is among the bill’s sharpest opponents, said he was "less confident" than before that reform could be stopped.

It was more than a year ago that Obama asked Congress to approve legislation extending health coverage to tens of millions who lack it, curbing industry practices such as denying coverage on the basis of pre-existing medical conditions, and beginning to slow the growth of health care nationally. His plan would require most Americans to buy health insurance, fine most who fail to do so and provide government subsidies to help middle-income earners and the working poor afford it.

Sweeping legislation seemed to be on the brink of passage in January,escort shanghai,shanghai escort-Array of Hurdles Awaits New Educat, after both houses approved bills and lawmakers began working out a final compromise in talks at the White House. But those efforts were sidetracked when Republicans won a special election in Massachusetts — and with it, the ability to block a vote on a final bill in the Senate.

Now,shanghai escort, nearly two months later, lawmakers have embarked on a two-step approach that requires the House to approve the measure passed by the Senate, despite misgivings on key provisions. That would be followed by both houses quickly passing a second bill that makes numerous changes to the first. In the Senate, that second bill would come to a vote under rules that deny Republicans the ability to delay it.

The details of the second, fix-it measure that comes after the House vote were closely guarded — and subject to last-minute changes. In general, officials have said they would provide more money for lower-income families unable to afford health care and states that already provide above average coverage for the poor, as well as improved prescription drug coverage for the elderly.

In the blueprint for overhauling federal education policy that President Obama sent to Congress on Monday, his administration seeks to confront some of the major educational challenges that have developed during the eight years that President George W. Bush’s No Child Left Behind law has been a powerful influence on the nation’s public schools.

The administration’s proposal, if enacted into law, would encourage states to raise academic standards after a period of dumbing-down, end the identification of tens of thousands of reasonably managed schools as failing, refocus energies on turning around the few thousand schools that are in the worst shape and help states develop more effective ways of evaluating the work of teachers and principals. And those are just some of its goals.

But this ambitious agenda presents striking challenges of its own, both political and in terms of implementation.

Teachers’ unions and some Republican lawmakers immediately signaled their dislike for pieces of the plan, complicating the administration’s job as Congress takes up the task of reworking the No Child law. And even if lawmakers were to adopt the plan in its broad outlines, experts said, years of work would be required to roll out the new federal policies to states and in the nation’s 15,000 school districts.

“This would require an immense reorganization of American education,” said Amy Wilkins, a vice president at the Education Trust, an advocacy group that works to close achievement gaps between minority and white children.

The administration’s blueprint, for example, calls on states to adopt new academic standards that build toward having all students ready for college and career by the time they leave high school. The National Governors Association introduced a draft of new standards that fit that description last week, and many states appear likely to adopt them. But even if the vast majority of states do so, that adoption process is likely to take a year or so, and the new standards will require a new effort to retrain teachers, develop new textbooks and write new tests.

The administration’s testing proposals themselves represent a big new challenge.

The standardized tests developed by the states under the No Child law focus on measuring the number of students in each grade level in each school who are proficient in reading and math. Now the administration would like to shift the focus to measuring each student’s academic growth, regardless of the performance level at which he starts.

Many educators consider that shift a promising one, but fewer than half the states currently have the advanced student data tracking systems needed to measure student academic growth. And experts say it could take several years for all states to develop those systems.

“These are all big challenges,” said Jack Jennings, a former Democratic Congressional staff member who is president of the Center on Education Policy, a research group. &ldquo,shanghai escorts-Top House Dem Says ‘Votes Are The;But in my view the administration has put forward a thoughtful proposal for dealing with several of the worst problems created by No Child Left Behind.”

Some Republican analysts were also impressed.

“It’s a serious blueprint, and one that would be a huge improvement over current law,” Michael Petrilli, a vice president at the Thomas B. Fordham Institute who served in George W. Bush’s Education Department, wrote in his blog. One feature he liked, Mr. Petrilli said, was that the blueprint would “focus most of its muscle and prescriptiveness on a handful of the worst schools.”

The current law requires that test scores increase in every school every year, to meet the requirement that 100 percent of students reach proficiency by 2014. According to a new research report by Mr. Jennings’s center,escorts shanghai, 31,737 of the 98,916 schools missed the law’s testing goals last year, vastly more than any level of government can help to improve.

The administration’s blueprint would refocus the most energy and resources on about 5,000 truly failing schools, and it outlines several models for how districts could intervene in them. Most would involve dismissing the principal and many teachers.

Teachers’ unions criticized those models.

“It’s just not a solution to say, ‘Let’s get rid of half the staff,’ ”said Dennis Van Roekel, president of the National Teachers Association. “If there’s a high-crime neighborhood, you don’t fire the police officers. This is a huge issue for us.”

Representative John Kline of Minnesota, the ranking Republican on the House education committee, said the blueprint “identifies many of the right goals for improving our schools.” But Mr. Kline said he questioned many of its proposals, “particularly those that increase federal intrusion.”

Grover Whitehurst, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution,escort shanghai, who headed the Education Department’s research wing during the Bush administration, noted that while the No Child law ran to 600 pages, the blueprint is only 41, outlining general goals but omitting myriad details.

“As the administration reveals those details, more political difficulties and implementation difficulties will arise,” Mr. Whitehurst said.

Outlining the dilemma faced by policymakers in the United States, Great Britain, Germany and France, Moody’s said that debt levels in the four large credit-worthy economies had reached the point at which they are at risk of being downgraded — a step that would drive up interest rates, increase borrowing costs and mark a turn in perceptions about the world economy.

Economic recovery might ease the problem by increasing tax revenue, Moody’s reported, but "growth alone will not resolve an increasingly complicated debt equation. Preserving debt affordability at levels consistent with AAA ratings will invariably require fiscal adjustments of a magnitude that, in some cases, will test social cohesion."

The dollar rose against major currencies despite the report, a reminder of its continued role as the world’s reserve currency.

The agency said a downgrade did not appear imminent and expressed confidence that the four countries would come to grips with their fiscal problems. Germany, the report said, has included a new debt provision in its laws, and the United States has established a commission on spending reform.

But the report nevertheless emphasized the growing concern over government deficits worldwide. A possible default by Greece has focused attention on the wide discrepancy in the health of the European economies and prompted European Union officials to debate ways to help Greece and other economically weaker countries. Spending cuts in Greece have triggered strikes and social unrest in recent weeks.

In economically healthier European countries such as Germany, France and Great Britain — as well as the United States — policymakers face a no-less urgent quandary, Moody’s said,shanghai escorts, as they craft an "exit strategy" for the emergency programs adopted in response to the economic crisis.

Those programs resulted in ballooning deficits as money was pumped in to stimulate the economy and prop up banking and financial institutions. Reducing spending too soon could undercut what is still considered a fragile economic recovery,shanghai escort, Moody’s said,shanghai escorts-Array of Hurdles Awaits New Educa, but waiting too long could put the world’s top economies at risk of a debt spiral in which financing deficits becomes increasingly difficult and expensive.

Delaying the needed spending controls "would test the patience of the market. . . . Although AAA governments benefit from an unusual degree of balance sheet flexibility, that flexibility is not infinite," Moody’s wrote. "We believe that the ratings of all large AAA governments remain well positioned — although their ‘distance-to-downgrade’ has in all cases substantially diminished."

All four countries have projected that debt will rise to 80 percent or more of annual economic production, the Moody’s report said, adding that debt-servicing costs in those countries are approaching the level that might warrant a downgrade.

* Move brings immediate congestion to parts of the capital

* Foreigners may halt share buying; watching outcome

By Chalathip Thirasoontrakul

BANGKOK, March 15 (Reuters) - Thousands of anti-government protesters started to move on Monday towards a military base in Bangkok where Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has his crisis headquarters, putting pressure on him to call fresh elections.

The red-shirted supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra have given the government an ultimatum to call elections by midday on Monday or face crippling demonstrations.

The protests, which began on Friday and involved more than 150,000 people on Sunday, have been peaceful so far, Monday’s march could stoke local anger by adding to the congestion in Bangkok and violence could hurt financial markets.

As elsewhere in Southeast Asia, foreign funds have been flowing into Bangkok’s stock market — to the tune of $812 million over the past three weeks — despite the increase in political tension.

Kosin Sripaiboon, an analyst at UOB Kay Hian Securities, said that might slow on Monday and the market could edge down .SETI.

&quot,escorts shanghai;No one really knows how this is going to end," he said. "Foreign inflows should slow as they gauge the situation. If all this fizzles out by midweek, we should see the flows pouring back in again."

Foreign investors worry any violence could derail a nascent recovery in Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy.

Their recent buying was based on three factors: Thai assets are already trading at a substantial risk discount, the economy has rebounded well from the the global downturn despite bouts of unrest; and, Abhisit is widely expected to survive the showdown. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^^ Take-a-Look at the political crisis, click [ID:nTHAIL AND] Scenarios of possible outcomes, click [ID:nSGE62D00C] Q+A about the "red shirts", click [ID:nSGE62D00D] ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^ The protesters caused immediate congestion in parts of the the capital as they started moving from their rally site in the centre before 9 a.m. (0200 GMT), mostly on motorbikes and pickup trucks, aiming to regroup at the military base by noon (0500 GMT).

Protest leaders hope a powerful display of popular support will force Abhisit to dissolve parliament and call an election that Thaksin’s allies would be well placed to win. They also want to convince wavering partners in his coalition to break away.

"We will march over there, brothers and sisters. We will go to the infantry to get an answer from Abhisit himself," said Nattawut Saikua, a leader of the protest group,escort shanghai-Asian Currencies Weaken as Wen Reb, the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), at a rally on Sunday.

"With this many people on the streets, I don’t see how he still thinks he has any legitimacy," he added.

Abhisit and his coalition are unlikely to bow to the pressure, the latest in a seemingly intractable political crisis pitting the military, urban elite and royalists, who wear yellow shirts at protests and back Abhisit,shanghai escort, against mainly rural Thaksin supporters who wear red and say they are disenfranchised.

Most of the protesters travelled from Thailand’s poor, rural provinces, piling into pick-up trucks, cars and even river boats, illustrating Thaksin’s influence despite his removal in a 2006 coup, a graft conviction and self-exile.

MEDIUM-TERM RISKS

Abhisit must go to the polls by the end of next year, which presents medium-term risks for economic stability.

Thaksin’s allies are likely to win those elections, just as they have won every poll held since 2001. The military and urban elite could seek to overturn that result, possibly with a coup, as in 2006, or a judicial intervention, as in 2008.

In his weekly television address on Sunday, Abhisit indicated immediate elections were unlikely, citing the tense political climate and his coalition government’s parliamentary majority.

Authorities have deployed 50,000 police and soldiers to control the crowd across the city.

Last April, protests by Thaksin supporters triggered Thailand’s worst street violence in 17 years. In recent months, they have emphasised non-violence — and Thaksin’s rhetoric has softened since last year when he spoke of a "revolution".

But without causing a big disruption, they may have trouble forcing elections, said Charnvit Kasetsiri, a political historian at Thammasart University. "It’s hard to pressure the government if the crowd is under control," he said.

The protesters say the British-born, Oxford-educated Abhisit came to power illegitimately, heading a coalition the military cobbled together after courts dissolved a pro-Thaksin party that led the previous coalition government.

Adding to their anger, Thailand’s top court seized $1.4 billion of Thaksin’s assets last month, saying it was accrued through abuse of power. [ID:nSGE61P0D9]

Thailand was plagued by political upheaval in 2008, when yellow-shirted protesters who opposed Thaksin’s allies in the previous government occupied the prime minister’s office for three months and then blockaded Bangkok’s international airport until a court ousted the government. ($1=32.55 Baht) (Writing by Alan Raybould and Jason Szep; Additional reporting by Martin Petty and Vithoon Amorn; Editing by David Fox)

By Bob Chen and David Yong

March 15 (Bloomberg) — Asian currencies fell the most in a month after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao rebuffed calls for a stronger yuan, damping expectations that the region’s central banks will allow further appreciation.

The South Korean won retreated from near a seven-week high after Wen told a press conference yesterday in Beijing that he does not think the yuan is undervalued and China opposes “countries pointing fingers at each other and even forcing a country to appreciate its currency.” The Malaysian ringgit fell from its strongest level since August 2008.

“Expectations that there’d be an immediate move in the yuan were too high,” said Joe Craven, the Asia-Pacific head of currencies and fixed-income at Unicredit Markets & Investment Banking in Hong Kong. Even so, he added, “regional currencies that may be affected, like the Korean won, have their own underlying fundamental justification for currency strength.”

The won fell 0.6 percent to 1,135.40 per dollar as of 11:03 a.m. in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached 1,126.23 on March 11, the strongest level since Jan. 19. The ringgit weakened 0.7 percent to 3.3150. The Bloomberg- JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index declined 0.2 percent, the biggest loss since Feb. 10.

Non-deliverable 12-month yuan forwards weakened 0.3 percent to 6.6445 per dollar in Hong Kong, the biggest drop in more than a month. The contracts reflect bets China’s currency will strengthen 2.7 percent from its spot rate of 6.8255. The yuan rose 21 percent against the dollar between July 2005 and July 2008, before the government halted its advance.

Inflation Pressure

Wen, 67, echoed central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan’s comments that China needs to be cautious in exiting crisis policies, which include having kept the yuan at about 6.83 per dollar since July 2008 to help exporters weather the global financial crisis. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman says that global economic growth would be about 1.5 percentage points higher if China stopped restraining the value of the yuan.

Premier Wen reiterated that the nation will keep the yuan “basically stable” and maintain a moderately loose monetary policy. February’s gain in consumer prices was 2.7 percent, compared with Wen&rsquo,escort shanghai;s target of about 3 percent for the year.

“With these comments, Wen is actually pushing one step further the politicization of the yuan issue,shanghai escorts,” Sebastien Barbe, head of emerging-market research at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong, wrote today in a research note. “We still believe that resuming the yuan’s appreciation would be necessary to cap domestic imbalances that could develop within China’s economy itself. However, we admit that such comments are likely to delay the resumption.”

Ringgit Weakens

Malaysia’s ringgit also weakened as technical gauge traders use to predict price reversals suggests the currency’s advance against the greenback may falter in coming days.

“We are seeing some pullback in the ringgit due to profit- taking,escorts shanghai-Baccarat, the Chinese way Rituals,” said Zulkiflee Nidzam, head of currency and bond trading at Asian Finance Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. “The underlying tone and outlook remain bullish.”

The dollar’s 14-day relative strength index fell below 30 last week, a threshold that some investors believe signals the U.S. currency is poised to rally. The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index dropped 0.4 percent.

Elsewhere, The Indonesian rupiah weakened 0.2 percent to 9,170, the Thai baht dropped 0.2 percent to 32.61 and the Philippine peso fell 0.2 percent to 45.74.

–With assistance from Bob Chen in Hong Kong and Patricia Lui in Singapore. Editors: Sandy Hendry,